Top 25 Challenge Week 14 Wrap Up

The last weekend of the college football season had plenty at stake for predictors and teams alike. Some had their title bubbles burst when others put the icing on great seasons and reaped the rewards of what they sowed all season. No other predictor demonstrated the latter better than JohnnyBeGood08. The Colorado fan placed ninth this week to reclaim the top ranking just in the nick of time to become 2011's Top 25 No. 1 predictor. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Top 25 Weekly Challenge - Week 14 Results

Just over a month ago, JohnnyBeGood08 had taken a 13-point lead in the Top 25 Challenge Rankings following an 11th place in Week 9. A win in Week 10 swelled his lead to a season high of 16 points and it looked like he might cruise to victory. That was before two K-State fans, kst8no1 and J06Powercat, fought back and battled him to the bitter end.

In Week's 11 and 12, JohnnyBeGood08 experienced set-backs with a pair of back-to-back 5-5 records. The idle weeks allowed kst8no1 to regain the lead which he enjoyed from Week's 3 through 8.

Week 12 was particularly concerning for JohnnyBeGood08 not only because he lost all of that 16-point lead to kst8no1 but also because a third player, third-ranked J06Powercat, was coming off three straight top ten placings and rapidly improving his rating. A 25-point lead over No. 3 J06Powercat had been cut to four in those two weeks. Over the Thanksgiving weekend, Week 13, J06Powercat would sneak into the lead after notching a 9-1 record.

That would set up the closest finish we've had in any previous Top 25 Challenge heading into the final weekend. J06Powercat, JohnnyBeGood08 and kst8no1 were Nos. 1, 2 and 3 with only three points between them. The margin of error was extremely small for each.

Week 14 began without any difference in projected winners between the three front-runners. The one major upset early on was (7)Houston getting their BCS and C-USA bubbles busted by (24)Southern Miss, 49-28. All three players were among the 93% that took a loss on the previously undefeated Cougars for big points.

Afternoon results (16)Kansas State over Iowa State, (19)Baylor over Texas and (1)LSU over (12)Georgia in the SEC Championship all came in as expected and predicted by all three.

The first evening game was the first one that differed. kst8no1 sprung for the time-zone factored upset pick of Hawaii (hosting BYU) while the other two stuck with BYU. BYU blew it open in the second half with a four touchdown 3rd quarter to win going away, 41-20. The player who led the contest for most of the season bowed out first.

That left J06Powercat and JohnnyBeGood08, No. 1 and No. 2, rooting for different teams in one game during the night caps. The 2011 Top 25 Challenge Champion would come down to the last game of the contest and the season. In the Bedlam Series, J06Powercat needed (13)Oklahoma to continue it's domination while JohnnyBeGood08 would pull for (3)Oklahoma State to end the eight game losing streak to the Sooners and earn their first Big 12 title at the same time.

Unfortunately, the game wouldn't turn out nearly as competitive as the ending to our season long contest. With BCS and ultimate Big 12 bragging rights at stake, (3)Oklahoma State jumped out to a 24-3 halftime lead and never flinched. The Cowboys forced five turnovers total and the Sooners would not recover from any of them. Oklahoma State would make a national statement with a 44-10 blowout. It was the most divided game of the week with 59% opting for the home Cowboys coming off a loss and a bye week.

In Week 14, JohnnyBeGood08(433.80) finished one game better than J06Powercat(424.85) and kst8no1(421.79) with an 8-2 record. He made up the one game he needed on J06Powercat in the season rankings and already owned the lead over both in confidence points.

What it added up to was a 9-point final margin of victory for the Colorado fan and his first major prediction title. For the season, he went 101-39(.721) and tallied 601.30 confidence points in fourteen weeks. Today, he added a second major prediction title by finishing No. 1 in the BSC Standings. He'll receive $25 and 12,000 CFBPoints for the Top 25 Challenge No. 1 title and $50 for the BSC Standings Top 2. In addition, he'll have a $50 incentive bonus if he finishes in the top ten of the Bowl Series Challenge.

What could have easily been a late-season collapse was turned into a remarkable recovery by just enough, just in time and that's all JohnnyBeGood08 needed to become 2011's undisputed No. 1 college football predictor.

***

Each contestant in the top ten of the final rankings will earn a Championship Top 10 finish and CFBPoints. Those include No. 1 JohnnyBeGood08, No. 2 J06Powercat, No. 3 NUtball, No. 4 kst8no1, No. 5 TwoEgg, No. 6 Mikey, No. 7 bobbyd, No. 8 Maietta, No. 9 tiger81 and No. 10 Stacker. Congratulations to all top finishers!

Week 14's field rating was 28.46 which is a hair above the season average of 26.98. There were not quite as many upsets this final weekend as there usually were during the course of the season. This week, there were only two when most weeks saw three. This week's winner Burnetag99 was one of only a handful to pick one of them, (21)Clemson's blowout upset over (5)Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship. Last year's field rating came in at an average of 24.39 which means this season was slightly easier to predict.

Enter the 2011-12 Bowl Series Challenge for a chance to win $100!

Top 25 Weekly Challenge - Week 14 Results

*the field rating is the CFBRating for the entire field, calculated by the average winning percentage x average confidence points. It can be used to measure prediction difficulty. The lower the number, the more difficult the contest for a given week or season. 2010's season average was 24.39.

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